In the last couple of decades transportation systems analysis (TSA) has emerged as a recognized
profession. More and more government organizations, universities, researchers, consultants, and
private industrial groups around the world are becoming truly multi-modal in their orientation and
are opting a systematic approach to transportation problems.
1.1 Characteristics
Multi-modal: Covering all modes of transport; air, land, and sea and both passenger and
freight.
Multi-sector: Encompassing the problems and viewpoints of government, private industry,
and public.
Multi-problem: Ranging across a spectrum of issues that includes national and
international policies, planning of regional system, the location and design of specific
facilities, carrier management issues, regulatory, institutional and financial policies.
Multi-objective: National and regional economic development, urban development,
environment quality, and social quality, as well as service to users and financial and
economic feasibility.
Multi-disciplinary: Drawing on the theories and methods of engineering, economics,
operation research, political science, psychology, other natural and social sciences,
management and law.
1.2 Context
Planning range: Urban transportation planning, producing long range plans for 5-25 years
for multi-modal transportation systems in urban areas as well as short range programs of
action for less than five years.
Passenger transport: Regional passenger transportation, dealing with inter-city passenger
transport by air, rail, and highway and possible with new modes.
Freight transport: routing and management, choice of different modes of rail and truck.
International transport: Issues such as containerization, inter-modal co-ordination.
1.3 Goal of Transportation Systems Analysis
In spite of the diversity of problems types, institutional contexts and technical perspectives their is
an underlying unity: a body of theory and set of basic principles to be utilized in every
analysis of transportation systems. The core of this is the transportation system analysis
approach. The focus of this is the interaction between the transportation and activity
systems of region. This approach is to intervene, delicately and deliberately in the complexfabric of society to use transport effectively in coordination with other public and privateactions to achieve the goals of that society. For this the analyst must have substantial
understanding of the transportation systems and their interaction with activity systems;
which requires understanding of the basic theoretical concepts and available empirical
knowledge.
1.4 Role of Transportation Systems Analyst
The methodological challenge of transportation systems is to conduct a systematic analysis in a
particular situation which is valid, practical, and relevant and which assist in clarifying the issues to
debated. The core of the system analysis is the prediction of flows, which must be complemented by
the prediction for other impacts. Refer Fig. 1 Predication is only a part of the process of analysis and
technical analysis is only a part of the broader problem, and the role of the professional
transportation system analyst is to model the process of bringing about changes in the society
through the means of transport.
Figure 1: Role of transportation system analyst
1.5 Influence of TSA: Applications
Transportation system analysis can lead to different application specialties and they include:
highway engineering
freight transportation
marine transportation
transportation management
airport planning
port planning and development
transportation regulation
transportation economics
environmental impacts
1.6 Influence of TSA: Methodologies
Transportation system analysis can also lead to different methodological specialties and they
include:
demand analysis, estimation and forecasting
transportation system performance like delays, waiting time, mobility, etc.
policy analysis and implementation
urban planning and development
land-use management
1.7 Influence of TSA: Methodologies
Finally, transportation system analysis can lead to different professional specialties and they
include:
technical analyst
project managers
community interaction
policy analyst
2 The Scope of TSA
2.1 Background: A changing world
The strong interrelationship and the interaction between transportation and the rest of the society
especially in a rapidly changing world is significant to a transportation planner. Among them four
critical dimensions of change in transportation system can be identified; which form the background
to develop a right perspective.
Change in the demand: When the population, income, and land-use pattern changes, the
pattern of demand changes; both in the amount and spatial distribution of that demand.
Changes in the technology: As an example, earlier, only two alternatives (bus transit and
rail transit) were considered for urban transportation. But, now new system like LRT,
MRTS, etc offer a variety of alternatives.
Change in operational policy: Variety of policy options designed to improve the efficiency,
such as incentive for car-pooling, road pricing etc.
Change in values of the public: Earlier all beneficiaries of a system was monolithically
considered as users. Now, not one system can be beneficial to all, instead one must identify
the target groups like rich, poor, young, work trip, leisure, etc.
2.2 Basic premise of a transportation system
The first step in formulation of a system analysis of transportation system is to examine the scope of
analytical work. The basic premise is the explicit treatment of the total transportation
system of region and the interrelations between the transportation and socio-economic
context.
The total transportation system must be viewed as a single multi-modal system.
Considerations of transportation system cannot be separated from considerations of social,
economic, and political system of the region.
This follows that the analysis of transportation system consists of the:
consideration all modes of transportation,
consideration all elements of transportation like persons, goods, carriers (vehicles), paths
in the network facilities in which vehicles are going, the terminal, etc.,
consideration all movements of movements of passengers and goods for every O-D pair,
and the
consideration the total trip for every flows for every O-D over all modes and facilitates.
As an example consider the the study of inter-city passenger transport in metro cities.
Consider all modes: i.e rail, road, air, buses, private automobiles, trucks, new modes like
LRT, MRTS, etc.
Consider all elements like direct and indirect links, vehicles that can operate, terminals,
transfer points, intra-city transit like taxis, autos, urban transit.
Consider diverse pattern of O-D of passenger and good.
Consider service provided for access, egress, transfer points and mid-block travel etc.
Once all these components are identified, the planner can focus on elements that are of real
concern.
2.3 Interrelationship of T&A
Transportation system is tightly interrelated with socio-economic system. Transportation affect the
growth and changes of socio-economic system, and will triggers changes in transportation system. The
whole system of interest can be defined by these basic variables:
The transportation system including different modes, facilities like highways, etc.
The socio-economic activity system like work, land-use, housing, schools, etc. Activity
system is defined as the totality of social, economic, political, and other transactions
taking place over space and time in a given region.
The flow pattern which includes O-D, routes, volume or passenger/goods, etc.
Three kinds or relationships can be identified as shown in Fig. 2 and can be summaries as
follows:
F is determined by T and A.
Current F will cause changes over time in A through the pattern of T and through the
resources consumed in providing T.
Current F will also cause changes over time in T due to changes in A
Note that A is not a simple variable as it looks. Also note that transportation is not the sole agency
causing changes in A.
Figure 2: Relationship between T, A and F
2.4 Intervening TAF system
The mode of fulfilling the objective of intervening the system of TAF is important. The three major
player in the TAF system are:
User: The users of the transportation system will decide when where and how to travel.
Operator: The operator of a particular facility or service operator will decide the mode
of operation, routes, schedule, facilities, etc.
Government Government will decided on taxes, subsidies, construction of new facilities,
governing law, fares, etc.
Their intervention can be in either transportation or activity system. The transportation options
available to impart changes in the system are:
Technology (e.g. articulated bus, sky bus, etc.);
Network (e.g. grid or radial);
Link characteristics (e.g. signalized or flyover at an intersection);
Vehicles (e.g. increase the fleet size);
System operating policy (e.g. increase frequency or subsidy); and
Organizational policy (e.g. private or public transit system in a city).
On the other hand, some of the activity options are:
Travel demand: This is the aggregate result of all the individual travel decisions. The
decision can be travel by train or bus, shortest distance route or shortest travel time
route, when (time) and how (mode) to travel, etc.
Other options: Most of the social, economic, and political factors in the activity system
decide when, how, or where to conduct activities. For example, the choice of school
is affected by the transportation facility, or the price of real estate influenced by the
transportation facilities.
The impacts of the transportation and activity options mentioned above diverse impact as illustrated in
fig. 3
Figure 3: Impact of TAF system
3 Prediction of flows
3.1 Concepts
Any proposed change in transportation system will trigger a change in the flows. Similarly, any
change in the activity system also will cause changes in the flows. A sound procedure is needed to
predict the flows resulting from changes in the transportation system or activity system or both.
Thus, the core of the transportation systems analysis is the prediction of changes in flows due to
changes proposed in the transportation system or the changes projected in the activity system.
Consider the present transportation system T and an activity system A. Let the proposed changes to
the transportation system be ΔT and new transportation system is defined as T′. Similarly, let the
projected changes in the activity system be ΔA and the new activity system is defined as A′. This
implies that, there will be also changes in flow, denoted by F′. This can be formally stated as:
The assumption here is that there exists an equilibrium between T, A, and F. In other words, at any
point in time, the specification of transportation system T and of activity system A implies the
existence of a unique pattern of flows, F. The basic hypothesis underlying this statement is that
there is a market for transportation which can be separated out from other markets. This
is type 1 relationship and it can be separated out from type 2 and type 3 relationships
(Fig. 2).
Introducing two more variables, the first indicates the service characteristics expressed by F like
travel time, fare, comfort, etc. which is denoted as S and the volume of flow in the network denoted as
V , following relations can be stated.
Specification of transportation system T establishes service function fj which indicates how the
level of service varies as a function of the transportation option and the volume of flows;
i.e.
(1)
Specification of the activity system options, A establishes demand function, fd, which gives the
volume of flow as function of activity system and level of service; i.e.
(2)
The flow pattern F consists of the volume V using the system and level of service S;
i.e.
(3)
for a particular T and A, the flow pattern that will actually occur can be found by the solution of service
function and demand function:
The above relations are shown in Fig. ??.
Figure 4: Graphical representation of flow prediction
3.2 Example
To illustrate the above concepts, we can consider a road connecting two cities. First, consider
the transportation system. Assume that the level of service S is expressed by the travel
time t between these two cities (this is the service level). The road has two lanes with one
lane on each direction and has a length of 10 units (this is the transportation system).
Assume one direction for our consideration. The general form of the service function can
be:
(4)
Here, the parameter defining the transportation system are m and n. For the current example, assume
m is 10 minutes and n is 0.01 minutes per vehicle per hour. Thus, the service function
fjt = 10 + 0.01 v which means that the travel time t in minutes will reduce with flow in vehicles
per hour. Now consider the activity system. The cities are characterised by their populations,
employment levels, etc. Here, we consider the demand in one direction from travel from city one to
two. The general form the the demand function can be:
(5)
Here, the parameters reflecting the travel behaviours are a and b. For this example, assume a is 5000
vehicles per hour and b is -100 vehicles per hour per minutes. This means that the demand for travel
will reduce from 5000 vehicle per hour by 100 vehicles for every unit increase in travel time. Thus, the
demand function is give as fdv = 5000 - 100 t.
Now the resulting flow pattern F is define by the volume v of the trips from city one to two in
vehicle per and the level of service they experience can be expressed by the travel time t in minutes.
Thus, the flow depends on the volume using the facility and the travel time (F = (v,t)). At
equilibrium, the flow pattern is represented by (vo,to) corresponding to the current transport and
activity system options. Mathematically, this can be represented as two equations, namely,
to = m + n vo = 10 + 0.01 vo and vo = a + b to = 5000 - 100 to, corresponding the demand
and supply functions respectively. The equilibrium solution will have the value of to and
vo that satisfies both the equations. This can be solved algebraically or graphically (see
figure ??). Numerically, the equilibrium solution is to = 30 minutes and vo = 2000 vehicles per
hour.
4 Summary
This chapter gives a broad framework on what is transportation systems modeling and the theoretical
basis for that. The modeling involves defining a transport system, activity system and their
interactions resulting in the flow. Note that this modeling frameworks is analogous to the demand
supply concept in economics that determines the price of a commodity and the quantity
produced.
4.1 Under construction
Figure 5: Graphical representation of flow prediction
Figure 6: Graphical representation of flow prediction
Figure 7: Graphical representation of flow prediction
Figure 8: Graphical representation of flow prediction
Figure 9: Graphical representation of flow prediction
Figure 10: Graphical representation of flow prediction
Exercises
Consider a highway connecting city 1 and city 2. The travel time t in minutes between
these two cities is give as t = 15 + 6v where v is the traffic volume and 6v gives the
additional time in sec/vehicle/hour. The traffic volume between these two cities is given by
v = 5000 - 100t where volume is in vehicle/hour and travel time is vehicle/hour/minute.
Suppose the highway is widened and the resulting travel time function is t = 3 + v, the
units same as earlier, find the initial and final travel time and traffic volume.
The the service function of a road connecting two cities is give as fjt = m + n v,
where t is the travel time between the cities and v is the volume of vehicles using that
road. What are the physical significance of the parameters m and n
The demand function representing the travel between two cities is give as fdv =
a + b t, where t is the travel time between the cities and v is the number of trips from
city one to two. What are the physical significance of the parameters m and n
Select a current transportation issue for modeling and do the following. (i) Identify
the transportation system components, (ii) Activity system that is interest to the
transportaion issue, (iii) What could be a suitable service function, (iv) What could be a
suitable demand function, (v) Visualize how the activity system may change, (vi) Propose
some transport improvement options, (vii) Illustrate flow predictions.
I wish to thank several of my students and staff of NPTEL for their contribution in this lecture. I
also appreciate your constructive feedback which may be sent to tvm@civil.iitb.ac.in
Prof. Tom V. Mathew
Department of Civil Engineering
Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, India