Experimental Epidemiological Prediction Model

COVID-19: What-if Scenarios for Different Interventions

An IIT Bombay initiative in collaboration with IIT Gandhinagar, ICMR and Visva-Bharati University

COMMAND: Collaboration for Multi-Model Analysis of iNfectious Diseases

"For better visualization, please open the website in a PC/ Laptop. Kindly note that this website provides the output generated by different modelling groups involved in this collaboration. They are based on multiple assumptions, and multiple sources of data. If you have any question related to any of the simulations, please contact the concerned groups members mentioned under the column

Models used in the study"

 

Select the Intervention

Real-Time Risk Map (Definition of Risk)

1.      No Extension of lockdown after 14th April

a)With increased testing $$

b)Continue the same rate of testing

2.      50% reduction in contacts everywhere till 15th May

a)With increased testing $$

b)Continue the same rate of testing

3.       Extending the lockdown till 30th April

a)With increased testing $$

b)Continue the same rate of testing

4.       Extending the lockdown till 30th April and during 1st May to 15th May 50% reduction in contacts

a)With increased testing $$

b)Continue the same rate of testing

5.      Extending lockdown till 15th May

a)With increased testing $$

b)Continue the same rate of testing



$$ With increased testing (testing and tracing; 80% symptomatic can be identified and isolated within one day of development of symptoms)

Note: The above list considers very selected exit plans/ interventions at an aggregate level based on the model capabilities, developed at IIT Bombay. However, the possible interventions and exit plan from an existing lockdown should consider multiple other pathways SOME OF WHICH are as mentioned below:

 

6.       Open Work, Restrict Other (Home at 50%, Contacts outside home, school, work at 50%)

a.       With increased testing (testing and tracing; 80% symptomatic can be identified and isolated within one day of development of symptoms)

b.       Continue the same rate of testing

c.       Same as a) but better compliance for Face Mask and Personal Hygiene

d.       Same as c) but with better compliance for Face Mask and Personal Hygiene, testing and tracing reduced to only 60% symptomatic

 

7.       Open Everything Except School. (School Remains closed for 90 days only, as in 6)

a.       With increased testing (testing and tracing; 80% symptomatic can be identified and isolated within one day of development of symptoms)

b.       Continue the same rate of testing

c.       Same as a) but better compliance for Face Mask and Personal Hygiene

d.       Same as c) but with better compliance for Face Mask and Personal Hygiene, testing and tracing reduced to only 60% symptomatic

 

The simulations using the System Dynamics model are made available (click here).

 

 

Possible economic impacts of COVID-19 and Lockdown (click here)


 

Updated on 5th May, 2020

 

 

Models used in this Study

 

 

1.        System Dynamics Model (Prof. Om Damani, CSE, IIT Bombay and Prof. V Jayendran, IEOR, IIT Bombay; email: damani@cse.iitb.ac.in)

2.        Statistical Model (Prof. Kalyan Das, Mathematics, IIT Bombay, and Prof. Arindom Chakraborty, Visva-Bharati University)

3.        X-SEAIPR Model (Prof. Mithun Mitra and Prof. Sai Vinjanampathy, Department of Physics, IIT Bombay

4.        Risk Assessment Model (Prof. Subhankar Karmakar, Environmental Science and Engineering Department, Prof. Subimal Ghosh, Department of Civil Engineering, IIT Bombay, Prof. Raghu Murtugudde, University of Maryland, presently visiting faculty, IIT Bombay)

5.        Economic Assessment (Prof. G. Haripriya, Humanities and Social Sciences, Prof. Vinish Kathuria, SJMSOM, IIT Bombay)